Lai's Ultimate Test Will Be Xi
China Times Editorial, December 9, 2022
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) saw a major setback in the local elections, and President Tsai Ing-wen's 2024 succession plan has also hit a wall. After a few days of thinking, Vice President William Lai has decided to run for the party chairman. Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan of Taoyuan, who President Tsai has long regarded as her successor, immediately expressed his support for Mr. Lai for the party chairman and for the 2024 presidential election. It is almost certain that Mr. Lai will run for president representing the DPP. Mr. Lai has been planning for a long time and has made full preparations for the election. President Tsai’s reputation has been severely damaged in the elections. The situation is greatly beneficial to Mr. Lai.
Mr. Lai is determined to take on the responsibility. In terms of public support and the mainstream views of the society presented by the media, it is something expected. His public support has been ahead of Mayor Hou You-yi of New Taipei, Chairman Eric Chu of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), and Mayor Ko Wen-je of Taipei for a long time. Although having fallen slightly behind Hou after the local elections, if he can improve the image of the DPP and bring new hope to voters after becoming the chairman of the DPP, then it may not be impossible for the DPP to continue to be in power for another eight years.
However, politics is the art of possibility, and there are many factors that affect elections. His presidential road may not be smooth. Mr. Lai will face (1) President Tsai’s determination, (2) whether the KMT will work together with the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), (3) the attitude of the United States, and (4) judgment by Chinese President Xi Jinping, all four of which comprise tests that will determine his future. Especially in the turbulent U.S.-China relationship both competitive and cooperative in nature and the danger of war in the Taiwan Strait, how Mr. Lai handles all these situations are detrimental.
President Tsai has clung to power for the past two years. She did not hesitate to take away democracy within the party, directly nominating the candidate she liked, and continue to persist on having Cheng as the next party chairman. However, Cheng’s thesis plagiarism incident was exposed at this critical moment, and he had to withdraw from the election, and follow the situation to support Mr. Lai. How will President Tsai face a second blow? Will she join forces with Premier Su Tseng-chang to continue fighting for power?
There are multiple factors explaining the DPP’s loss in the elections, the most important being the failure of domestic governance, especially how younger and moderate voters no longer trust the DPP. Premier Su is the root cause, yet Tsai Ing-wen refuses to replace him. If the DPP continues to take the wrong path, the Kuomintang will have a chance to win the election by relying on the mistakes of Premier Su. Mr. Lai keeps saying "respect Tsai," but is he willing to take this risk? If he hopes to replace Premier Su and bring in new hope for the 2024 election with new people and new policies, will President Tsai be willing to give up power? All of this is President Tsai’s discretion that is beyond Mr. Lai’s control.
The second test is the performance of the KMT and TPP. The Democratic Progressive Party has lost popular support, and the opposition party is gaining momentum. However, if the Kuomintang cannot successfully produce a presidential candidate and then establish a cooperation mechanism with the TPP, it will lose its chance of winning the election. At present, it seems that the KMT should have learned from the lessons of the change of posts in 2016 and the entry and exit of Terry Gou, founder of Foxconn, in 2020, and will focus on unity. The TPP had little success in the local elections, and whether it can play a key role in the overall situation in 2024 depends on whether Ko’s political support can be maintained after losing his stage as mayor of Taipei.
Third, how will the United States think of Mr. Lai, who claims to be a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker?" Subtle changes have taken place in U.S.-China relations after the meeting between Mr. Xi and President Joe Biden. The United States no longer talks about confrontation with China, but instead emphasizes "the guardrail of the relationship between the two countries" and "cooperation in competition." According to the meeting minutes released by the mainland, the United States promised not to support Taiwan independence, “one China, one Taiwan,” or “two Chinas,” and the United States has not denied this report. In addition, Director Sandra Oudkirk of the American Institute in Taiwan, declared at a press conference recently that the "solid unofficial relationship between the United States and Taiwan" should mean that the Biden administration does not want the U.S.-China relationship to derail. Although Mr. Lai promised to support President Tsai’s “four musts” cross-strait policy, Taiwan independence is in his DNA. Under the framework of the U.S.-China competition and cooperation relationship, will the United States feel at ease with this "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker?" Does Mr. Lai need to try harder to win the trust of the United States?
Finally, Mr. Xi has no intention of reunifying Taiwan by force, but he will not allow Taiwan to gradually drift away and finally achieve de jure Taiwan independence. It is reasonable to infer that he hopes to make breakthroughs in cross-strait relations before the end of his third term in 2028. Therefore, the U.S. military is worried about 2027, a possible outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait. How Mr. Xi will judge Mr. Lai will be the key to his decision between war and peace. Mr. Lai claims to be pragmatic, but how pragmatic is he? Can the United States and Mr. Xi’s doubts about his Taiwan independence DNA be dispelled? This will be Mr. Lai’ ultimate test.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20221209004399-262101